Macroeconomic Indicators & Trends Report – March 2025

​Key economic indicators reflect that the U.S. economy exhibited a blend of resilience and emerging challenges in March 2025.

The Intellizence AI platform for company and market intelligence monitors hundreds of growth and risk signals in thousands of companies daily. Here is the executive summary of the U.S. macroeconomic indicators and trending topics for March 2025.

US Macroeconomic Indicators 

The Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, Projects Two Rate Cuts this Year

At its March 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%, intending to bring inflation closer to its 2% target.

The Fed has held rates steady since cutting rates by 1% in the second half of 2024. The updated official statement said, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased,” which Fed Chair Jerome Powell later qualified as relating to tariff policy uncertainty. 

Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth. The Fed announced it will slow the pace of reduction in its $6.4 trillion bond holdings next month. 

The US Economy Added 228,000 Jobs in March 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, transportation, and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting workers’ return from a strike. Federal government employment declined.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other services.

• Health care added 52,000 jobs in February, the same as the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 12 months. Job growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+26,000), hospitals (+15,500), and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,200).
• Employment in retail trade changed little over the month (-6,000) and has shown little net change over the year. In February, employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, primarily due to strike activity. Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.
• Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in February (+11,000), below the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+21,000). However, employment increased in individual and family services (+10,000) over the month.
• Social assistance added 22,000 jobs in January, led by individual and family services (+20,000). Employment also rose in the community food and housing, emergency, and other relief services industry (+4,000).  
• Employment in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries declined by 8,000 in January, following little net change in 2024. The job loss was concentrated in support activities for mining (-8,000).

Services PMI® at 50.8% in March 2025

Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the ninth consecutive month in March, according to the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 50.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

“Ten industries reported growth in March, a drop of four from the 14 industries reported in each of the previous two months.”

The 10 services industries reporting growth in March are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Retail Trade. The seven industries reporting a contraction in March — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information.

Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, and below 50 indicates contraction. 

Manufacturing PMI® at 49% in March 2025 

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.   

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in March, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 50.3 percent recorded in February. The overall economy continued to expand for the 59th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)

Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, a negative for economic growth. Indications that demand weakened include:

1. New Orders Index falling further into contraction territory.
2. New Export Orders Index dropping into contraction.
3. The backlog of the Orders Index is contracting at a faster rate.
4. Customers’ Inventories Index remaining in ‘too low’ territory.

The nine manufacturing industries reporting growth in March — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. In order, the seven industries reporting contraction in March are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.

Note: A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Core Inflation Eases, Complicating Picture for the Fed

As of March 2025, the United States’ core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 2.8% year-over-year. This marks the smallest annual increase since March 2021, down from 3.1% in February.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February.

• The energy index fell 2.4 percent in March, a 6.3-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in the electricity and natural gas indexes. 
• The food index, in contrast, rose 0.4 percent in March, while the food at home index increased by 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose by 0.4 percent. 
• The index for all items except food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March, following a 0.2 percent increase in February.
• Indexes that increased over the month include personal care, medical care, education, apparel, and new vehicles. 
• The indexes for airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among the major indexes that decreased in March.

The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance despite the easing in core inflation. The federal funds rate remains at 5.25%–5.50%, with the Fed adopting a “wait-and-see” approach due to uncertainties surrounding new governmental measures in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. ​

Note–  The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected monthly in 75 urban areas across the country, from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other stores and service establishments). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices consumers pay for goods and services.  

US Economic, Housing, and Mortgage Market Outlook – March 2025

As of March 2025, the U.S. economic, housing, and mortgage markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by moderating growth, fluctuating mortgage rates, and policy uncertainties. Here’s an overview:​

Economic Outlook

Growth Projections: Fannie Mae has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast downward to 1.7%, citing weaker economic data and trade policy uncertainties. ​

Inflation Trends: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now expected to end 2025 at 3.2%, an upward revision from earlier estimates, largely due to the anticipated pass-through effects of tariffs to consumer prices.

Housing Market Trends

According to Fannie Mae:

• Home Sales: Total home sales for 2025 are projected at 4.95 million, a slight increase from previous forecasts, influenced by expectations of lower mortgage rates. ​
  
• Home Prices: After a 5.8% increase in 2024, home price growth is anticipated to moderate to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, according to a panel of over 100 housing experts.
  
• Market Challenges: Affordability remains a significant concern, with high prices and mortgage rates continuing to pose challenges for potential homebuyers. ​

The housing sector is experiencing notable disruptions. Trade tariffs have led to a surge in bond yields, causing mortgage rates to experience their most significant increase since October. This has negatively impacted home purchase volumes and mortgage applications.

Forecasts suggest that mortgage rates will remain elevated. The Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group projects that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average 6.6% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026.

Trending Topics:

• US job cuts surged in March due to federal government layoffs.

According to Intellizence layoff data, there were over 275,240 jobs cut, marking a 60% increase from February. The federal government’s downsizing efforts primarily contributed to the spike in job cuts. The private sector companies across industries also announced significant layoffs in March 2025 to streamline operations and reduce costs. 

• • Some significant layoff announcements included Dell Technologies(12000), Utility Stores Corporation(6000), Siemens(5600), British Steel (2700), Sky Group Limited(2000) & HP (2000) & more.
    

• March Retail Sales Decline 0.9% Year-Over-Year 

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that in March 2025, U.S. retail sales experienced a significant increase, mainly driven by consumer efforts to purchase ahead of impending tariffs.​

Key Highlights

• Overall Growth: Retail and food services sales increased by 1.4% month-over-month, reaching $734.9 billion, and rose 4.6% compared to March 2024.
  
• Auto Sales Surge: Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers jumped 5.3% from February and 8.8% year-over-year, as consumers rushed to buy vehicles before new tariffs on imported cars and parts took effect.
• Other Sector Gains: Sales of building materials and garden equipment rose 3.3%, while food services and drinking places saw a 1.8% increase.
• Electronics and appliance stores experienced a 0.8% increase.
• Declines Noted: Sales at gasoline stations fell 2.5%, attributed to lower fuel prices. Furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 0.7% decrease.​

 While March’s retail sales figures show a robust increase, analysts caution that this may be a temporary boost. As tariffs impact prices, consumer spending will slow down in the coming months.

About Intellizence:

Intellizence, Inc. is an award-winning AI startup focused on Company and Market Intelligence. Intellizence offers curated company news signals and datasets about the latest Mergers and acquisitions, startup funding, layoffs, business expansion, and major hiring. Top global companies rely on Intellizence to proactively identify emerging opportunities and risks with timely and actionable intelligence. 

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